Metaculus
PulseAugur coverage of Metaculus — every cluster mentioning Metaculus across labs, papers, and developer communities, ranked by signal.
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AI专家澄清AGI时间线定义，偏好中位数而非平均数
LessWrong上的一篇文章探讨了人们讨论通用人工智能（AGI）时间线时的模糊性。作者提出，当个人陈述时间线，例如“两年”时，他们通常不明确是表示AGI到来的期望值、中位数还是特定百分位数。文章认为，使用中位数或百分位数更为常见和实用，特别是考虑到AGI可能永远不会被开发出来的可能性，这将导致期望值未定义。
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Prediction markets fall short of promise, dominated by sports and crypto bets
Prediction markets, theoretically capable of aggregating dispersed knowledge for better decision-making, have seen significant growth, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now transacting billions monthly. However,…
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Forecasting platforms like Metaculus and Manifold offer high ROI, author argues
This post argues that funding for forecasting platforms and research has yielded significant returns, contrary to a previous assertion. Platforms like Metaculus and Manifold, despite modest initial investment, have prov…
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Forecasting research funding debated: valuable tool or overhyped solution?
A debate is emerging within the AI community regarding the value and funding of forecasting research. One perspective argues that while forecasting has flaws, it has provided valuable, albeit often non-public, insights …