Prediction markets, theoretically capable of aggregating dispersed knowledge for better decision-making, have seen significant growth, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now transacting billions monthly. However, the majority of this volume is driven by sports betting and cryptocurrency speculation rather than policy-relevant questions. While some institutions like Google and the CIA have experimented with internal markets, their broader promise of societal foresight is hindered by a lack of demand for their predictions beyond individual bettors, despite potential benefits in risk monitoring and news interpretation. AI
影响 Discusses the potential and current limitations of prediction markets, with a brief mention of AI forecasters.
排序理由 The article is an opinion piece by an author with relevant experience discussing the utility and limitations of prediction markets.
- Barbara Mellers
- Daniel Kahneman
- Friedrich Hayek
- FutureSearch
- Hal Varian
- Kalshi
- Kenneth Arrow
- Metaculus
- Peter Scoblic
- Philip Tetlock
- Polymarket
- Robin Hanson
- Vitalik Buterin
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