Polymarket
PulseAugur coverage of Polymarket — every cluster mentioning Polymarket across labs, papers, and developer communities, ranked by signal.
- founded by Shayne Coplan 100%
- instance of GPT-5.6 90%
- used by Thomas Miller 90%
- invested in 1789 Capital 90%
- competes with Kalshi 70%
- competes with United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission 70%
- competes with Major League Baseball 70%
- competes with Claude Fable-5 70%
- affiliated with George Santos 70%
- competes with FanDuel 70%
- instance of Prediction Markets 70%
- competes with Robin Hanson 70%
- 2026-10-29 product_launch Polymarket launched 15-minute prediction contracts for gold and silver prices. source
- 2026-09-11 funding Polymarket is raising approximately $1 billion at a valuation of $21 billion, led by 1789 Capital. source
- 2026-08-04 funding Prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly seeking to raise $1 billion at a valuation over $20 billion. source
- 2026-07-18 regulatory France's gambling authority ordered ISPs to block access to Polymarket, classifying it as an illegal gambling site. source
- 2026-06-26 funding Prediction market platform Polymarket has reportedly achieved over $1 billion in annualized revenue. source
- 2026-06-21 controversy Polymarket allegedly paid individuals to create fake videos of winning bets. source
- 2026-06-11 funding Polymarket and Kalshi have seen over $2 billion in contract value traded for World Cup championship predictions. source
- 2026-06-08 regulatory Polymarket and Kalshi instructed influencer partners to remove posts questioning election integrity. source
- 2026-06-03 partnership Polymarket is terminating its contract with George Santos due to an ongoing federal investigation into his alleged insider trading activities. source
- 2026-05-26 regulatory Indonesia banned Polymarket, classifying it as an online gambling platform. source
26 day(s) with sentiment data
Polymarket sees increased regulatory scrutiny due to AI-driven insider trading detection
The CFTC's deployment of AI to hunt insider trading on platforms like Polymarket signifies a new era of regulatory oversight for prediction markets. This suggests Polymarket may face increased compliance burdens and potential platform restrictions as regulators enhance their ability to monitor and enforce rules.
FutureSim benchmark could drive demand for AI agents capable of prediction market analysis
The development of FutureSim, a benchmark for AI forecasting using historical data, indicates a growing interest in evaluating AI's predictive capabilities. This could lead to increased demand for AI agents specifically trained and optimized for analyzing and participating in prediction markets like Polymarket.
Polymarket to see surge in sophisticated AI trading bots following $2.2M profit report
The recent report of an AI trading bot netting $2.2 million on Polymarket is likely to incentivize other developers and traders to create and deploy similar sophisticated AI bots. This could lead to increased market volatility and a more competitive landscape on the platform.
Polymarket to see increased adoption by AI-driven trading firms
Given the recent success of an AI trading bot generating substantial profits on Polymarket, it is likely that more AI-driven trading firms will begin to utilize the platform for their automated strategies. This could lead to increased liquidity and more complex prediction markets on Polymarket.
Regulatory scrutiny on AI-powered prediction markets to increase
The reported success of AI trading bots on platforms like Polymarket, coupled with ongoing legislative efforts like the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, suggests that regulatory bodies may increase their scrutiny of AI-driven activities within prediction markets. This could lead to new compliance requirements or restrictions.
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Democrats demand White House action on staff prediction market betting
Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley are urging the White House to implement stronger safeguards against employees using nonpublic government information for prediction market bets. This action follows …
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faces investigation amid affair scandal and succession concerns · 4 sources tracked
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is facing scrutiny following an admitted extramarital affair with an individual reportedly linked to Chinese intelligence. This has prompted an independent investigation by Nvidia's board, with p…
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Polymarket predicts Claude and Gemini will surpass ChatGPT by 2026
A screenshot from the prediction market Polymarket suggests that ChatGPT has only a 9% chance of being the leading AI by the end of 2026. The market favors Anthropic's Claude with a 52% probability and Google's Gemini w…
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Google leads AI models, Anthropic leads AI agents: Polymarket bets show divergence
Traders on Polymarket are betting on different companies leading in AI models versus AI agents, indicating a structural divergence in the industry. Google is currently favored to win the AI model race by the end of 2026…
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Prediction markets accurately forecast elections, now focus on Trump administration departures
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket demonstrated high accuracy in forecasting election outcomes, bolstering their reputation. Following the elections, these platforms are now seeing increased activity as tr…
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AI trading bot's metrics misled developer on profitability
An AI trading bot developer discovered that their system's seemingly impressive performance metrics were misleading. The bot's high directional accuracy was inflated by ignoring trades where it closely mirrored market p…
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Fanatics aims for No. 1 in sports betting despite market challenges
Fanatics, currently a distant third in the U.S. sports betting market, is aiming for the number one spot. Founder Michael Rubin expressed dissatisfaction with their current position and indicated a willingness to signif…
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Kalshi sees $1.4B in US midterm election bets, favoring Democrats
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, has seen over $1.4 billion in trading volume for US midterm elections, with traders heavily favoring Democratic control of Congress. The platform's volume is driven by bets on key r…
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Prediction markets' accuracy tested in midterm elections
Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, are closely watched for their accuracy in forecasting election outcomes. While these platforms profit regardless of the bet's outcome, a Democratic sweep in the current…
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Curated list simplifies access to sports betting odds data for AI
A curated list of sports odds MCP servers aims to simplify the process for developers and AI models like Claude, Cursor, and ChatGPT to access live betting data. The list, maintained by Kambiz Mahboubi, focuses on provi…
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Data scientist's model gives Democrats 90% odds of Senate control
Data scientist Thomas Miller's predictive model indicates a strong likelihood of Democrats securing control of the U.S. Senate, assigning them a 90% chance of winning at least 51 seats. This projection significantly sur…
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QuantDinger Jev Filter Fails Backtest, Blocks No Trades
A backtest of QuantDinger's Jev filter revealed that it failed to make any decisions in 1,324 requests when using the platform's default settings. The filter's confidence bar was never cleared, meaning trades proceeded …
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Data scientist's model predicts low GOP odds for Senate control
Data scientist Thomas Miller has developed a predictive model for the US Senate elections that utilizes real-time data from prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. This model, which Miller claims outperforms AI, …
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Bose speaker deal, Google Home updates, and Polymarket trading halt
Bose has reduced the price of its Lifestyle Ultra Speaker, offering a $70 discount to an all-time low. Concurrently, Google has released 42 updates for its Home app and compatible devices, addressing user-reported issue…
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Patrick Stewart Dies; Polymarket Halts Trading After Hack
This cluster contains two unrelated news items. The first reports on the death of actor Patrick Stewart, known for his roles in 'X-Men' and 'Star Trek'. The second item details a trading halt on the Polymarket platform …
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Binance probes potential $5.7B crypto hack, largest in history · 1 source tracked
Binance is investigating a potential cryptocurrency hack that could be the largest in history, with estimates of stolen funds ranging from $1.7 billion to $5.7 billion. The incident occurred during a period of heightene…
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Polymarket launches 15-minute gold and silver price prediction contracts
Polymarket has launched new 15-minute prediction contracts for the price of gold and silver, expanding its offerings beyond cryptocurrencies. These short-duration contracts, similar to those already popular for Bitcoin,…
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AI agents struggle to manage fantasy soccer team, show mixed prediction skills
A Wired reporter experimented with deploying AI agents to manage a fantasy soccer team, finding that while the agents could process vast amounts of information, their initial suggestions were surprisingly poor, even ben…
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Data scientist's model predicts Democrats to flip 5 Senate seats
A data scientist named Thomas Miller has developed a predictive model for the upcoming US Senate elections, utilizing data from prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. His model, which has previously shown accura…
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NBA partners with prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket
The NBA has announced a new partnership with prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. This collaboration will allow fans to engage with the league through these platforms. Details of the agreement were published by The…