English(EN) Probabilities are not the right concept

LessWrong 作者质疑概率的基本性质

作者 PulseAugur 编辑部 · [1 个来源] · 2026-05-23 16:10

LessWrong 上一系列新帖子探讨了概率的基本性质，质疑其是否是理解不确定性的最恰当概念。作者旨在借鉴多位研究者的工作，为贝叶斯先验、伦理学和其他复杂问题构建一个统一的框架。这篇初步的帖子批评了现有的概率定义，包括频率主义和主观贝叶斯观点，并认为它们不足以应对现实世界的预测和主观信念。 AI

影响探讨了与人工智能推理和不确定性下决策相关的基础概念。

排序理由该条目是一篇评论文章，讨论了与人工智能和概率相关的哲学概念，而不是直接发布或重大的行业事件。

AI 生成摘要 · Google Gemini · 来自 1 个来源。我们如何撰写摘要 →

本文如何被排名

Signal score: 0 / 100; Composite score across the factors below. Higher = stronger signal that this story matters right now.
Newsworthiness bucket: Commentary; 该条目是一篇评论文章，讨论了与人工智能和概率相关的哲学概念，而不是直接发布或重大的行业事件。
Source corroboration: Single-source cluster; Only one publisher covered this so far. Single-source stories can still rank when the publisher is high-authority, but they lack cross-source corroboration.
Topics: opinion, paper; Editorial topic classification. Feeds into how the story surfaces on /topic/<slug> hub pages and into the per-entity coverage mix.
AI-industry relevance: High; Clearly on-topic for AI-industry coverage.
Story freshness: 137 days old; Aged out of breaking-news scoring windows; ranking reflects the durable signal from the full source set.

完整方法见我们的编辑标准。

LessWrong (AI tag) TIER_1 English(EN) · David Matolcsi · 2026-05-23 16:10

概率不是正确的概念

<h1><span>Introduction</span></h1><p><span>This sequence is an attempt to sketch a unified framework for several interconnected questions: Where do Bayesian priors come from? What even are probabilities? How should we deal with infinite ethics? What's going on with anthropics? I …