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Neural networks struggle with extreme predictions in uncertainty propagation

A new study published on arXiv investigates the performance of neural network surrogate models in capturing the full distribution of solutions for stochastic problems, particularly focusing on the tails of the distribution. Researchers found that prediction errors at the extreme ends can be an order of magnitude larger than mean field errors, often due to the networks extrapolating beyond training data. The study compared feed-forward networks and Deep Operator Networks, suggesting that a fully connected neural network trained with a weak form residual loss performed best in handling these extrapolated inputs. AI

影响 Highlights limitations of current neural networks in predicting extreme outcomes, crucial for risk assessment in physical modeling.

排序理由 The cluster contains an academic paper detailing a numerical study on neural network performance.

在 arXiv cs.LG 阅读 →

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Neural networks struggle with extreme predictions in uncertainty propagation

报道来源 [2]

  1. arXiv cs.LG TIER_1 English(EN) · Kirubel Teferra ·

    A numerical study into neural network surrogate model performance for uncertainty propagation

    Neural network surrogate models have emerged as a promising approach to model solution fields for a wide variety of boundary value problems encountered in physical modeling. Stochastic problems represent an area of particularly high interest because of the potential to significan…

  2. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · Noah Wade, Kirubel Teferra ·

    A numerical study into neural network surrogate model performance for uncertainty propagation

    arXiv:2605.16078v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural network surrogate models have emerged as a promising approach to model solution fields for a wide variety of boundary value problems encountered in physical modeling. Stochastic problems represent an area of particularly high…