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English(EN) Polymarket and Kalshi priced the Fed's October decision 4 points apart

Polymarket 和 Kalshi 在美联储利率决定概率上存在分歧

预测市场 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 对美联储 10 月份关于利率的决定提供了不同的概率评估,两者之间存在 4 个点的差距。作者指出,Kalshi 在同一事件的自身市场数据中也显示出内部差异。更远期的较小交易量市场,例如 12 月和 1 月的市场,更容易受到单笔交易价格波动的影响。 AI

排序理由 该条目讨论了两个预测市场对未来事件的不同定价,并提供了数据分析和评论。

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Polymarket 和 Kalshi 在美联储利率决定概率上存在分歧

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该条目讨论了两个预测市场对未来事件的不同定价,并提供了数据分析和评论。
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  1. dev.to — MCP tag TIER_1 English(EN) · Arhan Canli ·

    Polymarket 和 Kalshi 对美联储 10 月决定的定价相差 4 个点

    <p>Prediction markets usually get quoted as one number: "markets see a 75% chance the Fed holds". There are two big US venues for Fed decisions, Polymarket and Kalshi, and they don't always say the same thing.</p> <p>At 07:46 UTC on 15 October 2026 I pulled every open market on t…