Benign overfitting in ML fails to predict equity returns, study finds

A new paper on arXiv explores the phenomenon of "benign overfitting" in the context of equity return prediction. The research indicates that while highly overparameterized machine learning models can interpolate training data effectively, they do not yield superior predictive power for equity returns compared to simpler benchmarks. The study observed a double descent pattern in ridgeless models and found that optimal ridge models offered only negligible improvements over their ridgeless counterparts at high parameter-to-observation ratios. Ultimately, both advanced models failed to outperform a basic historical average, suggesting that standard equity predictors lack genuine forecasting ability even within complex machine learning architectures. AI

影响 Suggests limitations of current machine learning architectures in financial forecasting, even with advanced techniques like benign overfitting.

排序理由 Academic paper published on arXiv detailing research findings. [lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=0.7]

在 arXiv stat.ML 阅读 →

• arXiv
• Benign overfitting in linear regression
• bias--variance tradeoff
• double descent
• Equity Return Prediction
• machine learning
• ridgeless model
• ridge model
• valuation

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