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English(EN) The data scientist who called Trump’s 2024 win now gives Democrats a 78% shot at the Senate

数据科学家利用博彩赔率预测参议院控制权

西北大学教授、数据科学家Thomas Miller开发了一种新方法,通过分析Kalshi和Polymarket等平台上的博彩赔率来预测选举结果。他称之为“NowCasts”的方法,利用专有算法调整博彩价格中的偏见,并识别驱动市场变化的潜在因素。Miller的分析表明,Donald Trump的行动显著影响着整个市场,同时影响多个选区。目前,他的预测显示在即将到来的参议院选举中,民主党趋势强劲,获得多数席位的可能性增加。 AI

排序理由 文章讨论了一种基于博彩市场预测选举结果的方法,而不是直接的事件,如产品发布或融资回合。

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数据科学家利用博彩赔率预测参议院控制权

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报道来源 [1]

  1. Fortune TIER_1 English(EN) · Shawn Tully ·

    The data scientist who called Trump’s 2024 win now gives Democrats a 78% shot at the Senate

    Northwestern’s Thomas Miller finds Democrats leading in 18 of 35 races, and the Trump effect hurting the GOP across the board.