English(EN) Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

AI天气模型Aardvark增加了不确定性量化

作者 PulseAugur 编辑部 · [1 个来源] · 2026-09-01 04:00

研究人员开发了Aardvark Weather模型的一个概率版本，这是一个用于天气预报的端到端AI系统。通过引入随机机制来捕捉观测中的偶然不确定性和学习动力学中的认知不确定性，这种增强解决了先前模型的确定性本质。由此产生的嵌套集合将预报差异归因于这两个来源，将平均预报提高了4.2%，并证明了与ERA5数据的校准。这种方法通过使预报具有观测驱动性来提供更大的透明度，这是创建大气数字孪生的一步。 AI

影响通过不确定性量化增强AI天气模型，提高大气数字孪生的透明度和可靠性。

排序理由这是一篇详细介绍AI模型新方法的学术论文。[lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=1.0]

在 arXiv cs.LG 阅读 →

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报道来源 [1]

arXiv cs.LG TIER_1 English(EN) · Rodrigo Almeida, Noelia Otero, Jost Arndt, Simon Baur, Wojciech Samek, Jackie Ma · 2026-09-01 04:00

不确定性感知端到端人工智能天气预报：区分观测和模型贡献

arXiv:2608.30795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of …

本文如何被排名

报道来源 [1]

不确定性感知端到端人工智能天气预报：区分观测和模型贡献

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