SemiAnalysis开发了ChipBook，一个旨在通过分析贸易流和库存数据来追踪半导体供应链的OSINT工具。该公司认为，这些开源信号，例如台湾DRAM库存下降以及中国和台湾内存IC出口增加，可以在官方公告前数周或数月预测市场变化。这种方法借鉴了通过开源情报追踪军事集结的经验，旨在通过在趋势被广泛报道之前识别它们来提供智能优势。 AI
影响 提供了一种预测半导体市场趋势的方法，这对于AI硬件供应链至关重要。
排序理由 该集群描述了一个用于供应链分析的新OSINT工具，而不是前沿AI发布或重大的行业事件。
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This is why we built ChipBook: our internal OSINT machine for the semiconductor supply chain. Trade flows, inventory, production — tracked continuously, from WFE to PCBs, so the signal shows up before the change in narrative does. (10/10) https://t.co/geycIFHBmg
OSINT never gives you the full picture — it gives you the puzzle pieces. It won't tell you the date of the strike or the exact quarter the cycle turns. But it generates signals — early, verifiable, and yes, at times a little rough — that give you an intelligent edge over https:/…
Here we are 12 months later, and everyone caught up. The signals were public months before the move. Trade data and inventory levels don't require a terminal or human asset on the ground — they require attention. (8/10) https://t.co/apcv5XuW2k
🟠 Signal #2: memory IC exports from the non-HBM countries — Taiwan and China — started rising fast. HBM drove Korean memory exports through 2023–2024, while China and Taiwan were merely recovering from the post-COVID glut. But in H2 2025, their exports began rising materially — …
🟠 Signal #1: Taiwanese mainstream DRAM inventory — bloated for years — recorded its first sequential decline after peak levels. When commodity DRAM inventory turns after a multi-year build, something structural might be changing downstream. (6/10) https://t.co/38UYmkNdSQ
A year ago, memory was the most uninteresting layer of the AI supply chain. All attention was on accelerators, DC construction, and power. Non-HBM DRAM, NAND, SSDs etc. were a sleepy, cyclical commodities nobody wanted to touch. We decided to be careful observers, and tried to…
None of this data was secret. Flight trackers, port logs, satellite imagery — all open source and freely shared on X. So even though it was hard to determine on which day Trump would pull the trigger, it was pretty easy to establish that there aren’t many reasons to bring https:…
Additionally, here one could see how U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth fighters were amassing at the Israeli Uvda Air Base, with Patriot missile components being set up on site, and new tarmacs being constructed. (3/10) https://t.co/lkhBPpKQUl
Before the first strike ever came down on Tehran, OSINT accounts right here on this platform were tracking the military buildup in the Middle East in near real time. Here for example one could see how leading up to the 28th, 333 (at a minimum) C-5 and C-17 transport aircraft
On Feb 28th 2026, the United States launched Operation “Epic Fury” against Iran. Markets and media were caught off guard, but careful and diligent observers were hardly surprised. The signals sat in plain sight for weeks, you just had to know where to look. A thread on OSINT …