在扭曲的经济数据中，AI资本支出激增

报道来源 [8]

1. X — SemiAnalysis TIER_1 English(EN) · SemiAnalysis_ · 2026-06-29 14:01

   The buildout of AI is not showing signs of mean reverting, and so it is gaining in size relative to the rest of the economy rapidly. (8/8)

   The buildout of AI is not showing signs of mean reverting, and so it is gaining in size relative to the rest of the economy rapidly. (8/8)

2. X — SemiAnalysis TIER_1 English(EN) · SemiAnalysis_ · 2026-06-29 14:01

   Underneath the noise, one thing is real and doesn't wash out: AI capex. Core capital goods orders rose 1.6% today, and in Q1 GDP, equipment plus software and IP

   Underneath the noise, one thing is real and doesn't wash out: AI capex. Core capital goods orders rose 1.6% today, and in Q1 GDP, equipment plus software and IP contributed 1.55 percentage points — four times the consumer's 0.37. (7/8) https://t.co/FwwxXdPVi1

3. X — SemiAnalysis TIER_1 English(EN) · SemiAnalysis_ · 2026-06-29 14:01

   A tariff is a one-time price-level shock: it lifts the level, shows up in the year-over-year for about twelve months, then drops out of the rate unless tariffs

   A tariff is a one-time price-level shock: it lifts the level, shows up in the year-over-year for about twelve months, then drops out of the rate unless tariffs are raised again. But the price level never comes back down. The rate reverts; consumers stay poorer for good. (6/8)

4. X — SemiAnalysis TIER_1 English(EN) · SemiAnalysis_ · 2026-06-29 14:01

   Tariffs are the one people get wrong. The 4.8% goods inflation rate — now running above services, the fingerprint of pass-through — is not permanent inflation.

   Tariffs are the one people get wrong. The 4.8% goods inflation rate — now running above services, the fingerprint of pass-through — is not permanent inflation. (5/8) https://t.co/Wp6rb92yTr

5. X — SemiAnalysis TIER_1 English(EN) · SemiAnalysis_ · 2026-06-29 14:01

   WTI averaged ~$102 in May and is trading under $70 today. A ~40% drop from the April peak as long as the Iran ceasefire holds. And durable goods "crashed" −4.5%

   WTI averaged ~$102 in May and is trading under $70 today. A ~40% drop from the April peak as long as the Iran ceasefire holds. And durable goods "crashed" −4.5%, which is just aircraft reversing April's +8.5% surge; strip transportation and orders rose 1.3%. (4/8)

6. X — SemiAnalysis TIER_1 English(EN) · SemiAnalysis_ · 2026-06-29 14:01

   May personal income beat at +0.7%, but a third of it is a one-off: $59.6B of farm disaster relief. Headline PCE inflation at 4.1%, almost all energy (which hope

   May personal income beat at +0.7%, but a third of it is a one-off: $59.6B of farm disaster relief. Headline PCE inflation at 4.1%, almost all energy (which hopefully will be down in July). (3/8) https://t.co/TeN9j1EcXx

7. X — SemiAnalysis TIER_1 English(EN) · SemiAnalysis_ · 2026-06-29 14:01

   Start with the headlines. Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1% from 1.6%, but the upgrade is import arithmetic. Imports were revised down, and imports subtract, while

   Start with the headlines. Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1% from 1.6%, but the upgrade is import arithmetic. Imports were revised down, and imports subtract, while real domestic demand was revised down to 1.7%. (2/8)

8. X — SemiAnalysis TIER_1 English(EN) · SemiAnalysis_ · 2026-06-29 14:01

   So much noise in the economic data right now.

   So much noise in the economic data right now. Four major US economic releases today, and special factors dominated almost all of them. Special factors mean-revert. Strip them out and the picture flips. (1/8)🧵 https://t.co/2Rot9sd8RN