当前的经济数据被许多扭曲真实情况的特殊因素所掩盖。例如，第一季度GDP因进口计算的修正而上调，而实际国内需求却被下调。同样，个人收入因一次性的农业灾害救济而有所增长，通胀数据也受到能源价格的严重影响。尽管存在这些暂时的扭曲，但AI资本支出的潜在趋势依然强劲，并在整体经济中的份额迅速增加。 AI
影响 AI资本支出的快速增长表明对AI基础设施的持续大量投资，可能推动未来的技术进步和经济变革。
排序理由 该集群包含来自单一来源（SemiAnalysis）的多个推文，讨论经济数据和趋势，而不是报道特定的新事件。
AI 生成摘要 · Google Gemini · 来自 8 个来源。 我们如何撰写摘要 →
The buildout of AI is not showing signs of mean reverting, and so it is gaining in size relative to the rest of the economy rapidly. (8/8)
Underneath the noise, one thing is real and doesn't wash out: AI capex. Core capital goods orders rose 1.6% today, and in Q1 GDP, equipment plus software and IP contributed 1.55 percentage points — four times the consumer's 0.37. (7/8) https://t.co/FwwxXdPVi1
A tariff is a one-time price-level shock: it lifts the level, shows up in the year-over-year for about twelve months, then drops out of the rate unless tariffs are raised again. But the price level never comes back down. The rate reverts; consumers stay poorer for good. (6/8)
Tariffs are the one people get wrong. The 4.8% goods inflation rate — now running above services, the fingerprint of pass-through — is not permanent inflation. (5/8) https://t.co/Wp6rb92yTr
WTI averaged ~$102 in May and is trading under $70 today. A ~40% drop from the April peak as long as the Iran ceasefire holds. And durable goods "crashed" −4.5%, which is just aircraft reversing April's +8.5% surge; strip transportation and orders rose 1.3%. (4/8)
May personal income beat at +0.7%, but a third of it is a one-off: $59.6B of farm disaster relief. Headline PCE inflation at 4.1%, almost all energy (which hopefully will be down in July). (3/8) https://t.co/TeN9j1EcXx
Start with the headlines. Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1% from 1.6%, but the upgrade is import arithmetic. Imports were revised down, and imports subtract, while real domestic demand was revised down to 1.7%. (2/8)
So much noise in the economic data right now. Four major US economic releases today, and special factors dominated almost all of them. Special factors mean-revert. Strip them out and the picture flips. (1/8)🧵 https://t.co/2Rot9sd8RN