Forecasting Research Institute
PulseAugur coverage of Forecasting Research Institute — every cluster mentioning Forecasting Research Institute across labs, papers, and developer communities, ranked by signal.
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AI existential risk probabilities unreliable for policy, argues expert
This article argues that current probability estimates for AI existential risk are too unreliable to inform policy decisions. The author contends that these 'p(doom)' figures, while presented quantitatively, lack a grou…
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AIRO system forecasts catastrophic risks using ensemble of frontier LLMs
The Forecasting Research Institute has launched Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO), a system that uses an ensemble of leading AI models to forecast the probability of catastrophic risk events. AIRO currently estimates a 0…
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AI experts predict 10% chance of solving Millennium Prize Problem by 2027
Experts in 2025 predicted a 10% probability that artificial intelligence would solve or significantly contribute to solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027. This forecast was part of a broader study on AI's potential…
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Forecasting research funding debated: valuable tool or overhyped solution?
A debate is emerging within the AI community regarding the value and funding of forecasting research. One perspective argues that while forecasting has flaws, it has provided valuable, albeit often non-public, insights …