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AIRO system forecasts catastrophic risks using ensemble of frontier LLMs

By PulseAugur Editorial · [1 sources] ·

The Forecasting Research Institute has launched Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO), a system that uses an ensemble of leading AI models to forecast the probability of catastrophic risk events. AIRO currently estimates a 0.47% chance of an AI-related catastrophe by the end of 2030 and a 6% chance by 2050, with forecasts also covering biorisk, cyberrisk, and misalignment. The system leverages top-scoring models from the Epoch Capabilities Index, including GPT-6 Astra, Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and GPT-5.5 Pro, to track how evolving AI capabilities correlate with the likelihood of severe outcomes. AI

IMPACT Provides a new quantitative tool for assessing and tracking existential risks from AI development.

RANK_REASON The cluster describes a new research project and system for forecasting AI risks, based on a white paper and dashboard. [lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=1.0]

Read on LessWrong (AI tag) →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 1 sources. How we write summaries →

AIRO system forecasts catastrophic risks using ensemble of frontier LLMs

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15 / 100
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The cluster describes a new research project and system for forecasting AI risks, based on a white paper and dashboard. [lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=1.0]
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safety, model release
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High
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COVERAGE [1]

  1. LessWrong (AI tag) TIER_1 English(EN) · Nick Merrill ·

    AIRO: Automated forecasts of catastrophic risks

    <p><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">The Forecasting Research Institute (along with coauthors Jason Abaluck and Eva Vivalt) are launching </span><a href="https://airo.forecastingresearch.org/" rel="noreferrer"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIR…

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