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Polymarket and Kalshi differ on Fed rate decision probabilities

By PulseAugur Editorial · [1 sources] ·

Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi offered differing probabilities for the Federal Reserve's October decision on interest rates, with a four-point gap between their assessments. The author notes that Kalshi also showed internal discrepancies in its own market data for the same event. Thinner markets further out, such as those for December and January, are more susceptible to price fluctuations from individual trades. AI

RANK_REASON The item discusses the differing prices of two prediction markets for a future event, offering analysis and commentary on the data.

Read on dev.to — MCP tag →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 1 sources. How we write summaries →

Polymarket and Kalshi differ on Fed rate decision probabilities

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The item discusses the differing prices of two prediction markets for a future event, offering analysis and commentary on the data.
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COVERAGE [1]

  1. dev.to — MCP tag TIER_1 English(EN) · Arhan Canli ·

    Polymarket and Kalshi priced the Fed's October decision 4 points apart

    <p>Prediction markets usually get quoted as one number: "markets see a 75% chance the Fed holds". There are two big US venues for Fed decisions, Polymarket and Kalshi, and they don't always say the same thing.</p> <p>At 07:46 UTC on 15 October 2026 I pulled every open market on t…

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