A LessWrong post introduces a Guesstimate model designed to calculate the expected growth rate for investments in real-money prediction markets. The model takes inputs such as share cost, holding rewards, win probability, and resolution time to output annualized expected returns. This tool aims to help users compare the potential growth of market participation against the opportunity cost of locked-up capital. AI
IMPACT This tool helps analyze prediction markets, which can be used for forecasting AI development timelines, but the tool itself is not AI.
RANK_REASON The item is a blog post discussing a tool for analyzing prediction markets, not a core AI development.
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