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LLMs like ChatGPT and Gemini struggle to predict customer behavior in ad tests

A study by Heatseeker CEO Kate O'Keeffe tested large language models ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini against 11 past advertising experiments to see if they could predict customer response. The models collectively performed poorly, with all three being incorrect in six of the tests and selecting the same incorrect answer in four instances. This research suggests that while LLMs can generate plausible explanations, their ability to accurately predict observed customer behavior based on provided data is limited, raising questions about the trustworthiness of their outputs in real-world applications. AI

IMPACT Highlights the gap between LLM plausibility and real-world predictive accuracy for customer behavior.

RANK_REASON Opinion piece by a CEO discussing limitations of LLMs based on a small study.

Read on Forbes — Innovation →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 1 sources. How we write summaries →

LLMs like ChatGPT and Gemini struggle to predict customer behavior in ad tests

How we ranked this

Signal score
1 / 100
Composite score across the factors below. Higher = stronger signal that this story matters right now.
Newsworthiness bucket
Commentary
Opinion piece by a CEO discussing limitations of LLMs based on a small study.
Source corroboration
Single-source cluster
Only one publisher covered this so far. Single-source stories can still rank when the publisher is high-authority, but they lack cross-source corroboration.
Topics
product, opinion
Editorial topic classification. Feeds into how the story surfaces on /topic/<slug> hub pages and into the per-entity coverage mix.
AI-industry relevance
High
Clearly on-topic for AI-industry coverage.
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Same-day
Cluster formed today. Ranking reflects the current source set at time of score.

Full methodology in our editorial standards.

COVERAGE [1]

  1. Forbes — Innovation TIER_1 English(EN) · Kate O'Keeffe, Forbes Councils Member ·

    A Language Model Is Not A Behavioral Model

    Rather than focusing on how fast AI can decide, businesses should prioritize how quickly they can discover when its assumptions are wrong.​