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New UQ Framework Derives Uncertainty Measures from Subjective Risk Decomposition

Researchers have introduced a new perspective on uncertainty quantification (UQ) by proposing that uncertainty measures are not fundamental but rather derived from higher-level modeling decisions. This framework shows how epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties can be obtained through the decomposition of subjective risk, using strictly proper loss functions. The approach unifies various UQ measures under a common theoretical foundation and suggests a practical method for UQ based on specific modeling scenarios and loss functions. Furthermore, the research extends this view to learning theory, analyzing subjective risk analogues of excess risk, approximation error, and estimation error, and connecting them to UQ. AI

IMPACT This research provides a unified theoretical foundation for uncertainty quantification methods, potentially leading to more robust AI models.

RANK_REASON The cluster contains two identical arXiv preprints detailing a new theoretical framework for uncertainty quantification.

Read on arXiv cs.LG →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 2 sources. How we write summaries →

New UQ Framework Derives Uncertainty Measures from Subjective Risk Decomposition

COVERAGE [2]

  1. arXiv cs.LG TIER_1 English(EN) · Gavin Brown ·

    Subjective Risk Decomposition: A New View for Uncertainty Quantification

    We present a novel viewpoint for uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty measures are not primitives, in need of axioms and argumentation, but instead consequences, of higher-level modelling decisions. We show how epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty measures can be derived via de…

  2. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · Raghad Alamri, Michele Caprio, Gavin Brown ·

    Subjective Risk Decomposition: A New View for Uncertainty Quantification

    arXiv:2607.15196v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a novel viewpoint for uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty measures are not primitives, in need of axioms and argumentation, but instead consequences, of higher-level modelling decisions. We show how epistemic and alea…