European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
PulseAugur coverage of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — every cluster mentioning European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts across labs, papers, and developer communities, ranked by signal.
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Google's GraphCast weather model adopted by European forecasters without job losses
Google's DeepMind has developed a machine learning model called GraphCast that can generate a ten-day global weather forecast in under a minute, significantly outperforming traditional physics-based models. The company …
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AI model improves soil moisture forecasts but struggles with flash drought prediction
A new research paper explores the effectiveness of data-driven methods for subseasonal soil moisture forecasting, particularly for predicting flash droughts over Europe. The study utilizes a Vision Transformer architect…
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AI research advances spatiotemporal and subseasonal time series forecasting
Two new research papers explore advanced AI techniques for improving time series forecasting, particularly in spatiotemporal contexts. The first paper introduces 'Prediction-powered inference' (PPI) to address bias in e…
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InCommodities unveils Aries weather model, outperforming ECMWF on wind speed
Researchers at InCommodities have developed Aries, a new medium-range weather prediction model utilizing a SwinTransformer architecture. Trained on ERA5 reanalysis data, Aries predicts numerous atmospheric variables and…
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Generative vs. Dynamical Models for Extreme Precipitation Forecasts
A new research paper evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model against a diffusion-based generative model for downscaling subseasonal extreme precipitation forecasts. Both methods improve upon raw Europ…
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New method extracts weather model uncertainty without retraining
Researchers have developed a new method called stochastically perturbed weights (SPW) to extract uncertainty estimates from deterministic machine-learning weather models without retraining. This technique involves pertu…
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Machine learning methods compared for weather forecast interpolation
A new arXiv paper explores the effectiveness of various statistical and machine learning methods for interpolating weather forecast data at unobserved locations. The study, which focused on 2-m temperature and 10-m wind…
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New AI framework PCSDiff enhances precipitation forecasts
Researchers have developed PCSDiff, a novel diffusion-based framework designed to improve medium-range precipitation forecasts. This system addresses limitations in current AI correction techniques by modeling dynamic b…
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August 2024 confirmed as hottest month on record globally
August 2024 was the hottest month on record globally, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This surpasses the previous record set in July 2023, with ocean temperatures also reaching unprecedented highs. S…
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Google's WeatherNext 3 AI model boosts forecast accuracy with real-time satellite data · 2 sources tracked
Google has released WeatherNext 3, an updated AI weather model that offers significantly improved accuracy and resolution. This new model leverages real-time satellite observations to generate hourly forecasts, a substa…
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Google DeepMind unveils more accurate AI weather model · 5 sources tracked
Google has enhanced its AI weather forecasting capabilities with a new model that leverages live satellite data for improved resolution. This advanced model, developed by Google DeepMind, is reportedly more accurate tha…
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AI weather model Aardvark goes probabilistic, attributing forecast uncertainty
Researchers have developed a probabilistic version of the Aardvark Weather model, an end-to-end AI system for weather forecasting. By incorporating learned noise in the observation encoder and Monte Carlo Dropout in the…
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Record ocean temperatures hit 21.1C amid El Niño and climate change
The world's oceans have reached their highest recorded temperature, hitting an average of 21.1 degrees Celsius on August 22. This record is attributed to the combination of human-driven climate change and a powerful El …
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Physics-constrained AI framework enhances global tropical cyclone forecasting
Researchers have developed Tianmu-TC, a novel physics-constrained generative AI framework designed for global tropical cyclone forecasting. This system, trained on data from the Western North Pacific, aims to improve fo…
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Frozen neural weather models adapted for climate simulation with Rescene
Researchers have developed Rescene, a novel method to adapt frozen neural weather models for climate simulation. By adding a deterministic wrapper and a spectrally shaped stochastic perturbation, Rescene enables a previ…
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Weather forecast accuracy threatened by rising data sabotage risks
The accuracy of weather forecasts is increasingly at risk due to potential data sabotage, particularly with the rise of AI-driven forecasting and prediction markets. While traditional methods like data assimilation and …
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New ML framework doubles subseasonal weather forecast skill
A new machine learning framework called Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC) has been developed to improve the accuracy of subseasonal weather forecasts, which typically degrade beyond two weeks. PBC works by learning to…
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Dynamic Line Rating Demo Uses Weather Models for Real-Time Transmission Capacity
A demonstration of dynamic line rating (DLR) has been developed, utilizing free weather models like HRRR, GFS, and ECMWF to calculate IEEE 738 conductor ampacity. This system provides real-time, per-span ratings along a…
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AI model AIFS-SUBS enhances sub-seasonal weather forecasts, cuts energy use · 3 sources tracked
Researchers have developed AIFS-SUBS, a new machine-learning model designed to improve sub-seasonal weather forecasting. This model adapts ECMWF's AIFS-CRPS system, employing a 24-hour autoregressive time step to mitiga…
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Record heatwave grips Eastern Europe, underscoring climate change impact
An intense and early heatwave is currently affecting Eastern Europe, following record-breaking temperatures in Germany. Cities like Budapest, Belgrade, and Bucharest are experiencing highs around 40 degrees Celsius, pro…