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Study evaluates LightGBM and deep learning for Norway electricity price forecasting

By PulseAugur Editorial · [3 sources] ·

Researchers have developed and evaluated eight different forecasting models, including LightGBM and deep learning architectures, to predict electricity prices across Norway's five bidding zones. The study utilized a multimodal hourly dataset from 2019 to 2025, employing rigorous backtesting and feature ablation techniques. LightGBM emerged as the top-performing model in all zones, with simpler models relying on lagged prices and calendar variables also showing strong accuracy. However, external factors like reservoir levels and gas prices were found to be essential for refining forecast accuracy, particularly during market stress. AI

IMPACT Provides benchmarked forecasting models for energy markets, highlighting the importance of external features during market stress.

RANK_REASON Academic paper on forecasting models with benchmark results.

Read on arXiv cs.LG →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 3 sources. How we write summaries →

Study evaluates LightGBM and deep learning for Norway electricity price forecasting

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COVERAGE [3]

  1. arXiv cs.LG TIER_1 English(EN) · My Thi Diem Phan, Trung Tuyen Truong, Hoai Phuong Ha, Dat Thanh Nguyen ·

    Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era

    arXiv:2604.26634v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021--2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting mo…

  2. arXiv cs.LG TIER_1 English(EN) · Dat Thanh Nguyen ·

    Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era

    Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021--2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data. Despite the …

  3. Hugging Face Daily Papers TIER_1 English(EN) ·

    Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era

    Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021--2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data. Despite the …

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