An argument is made that individuals, particularly those in AI safety and longtermist fields, should reduce their effort due to significant uncertainty about the actual impact of their work. The author posits that intense effort can distort epistemic judgment, leading to motivated reasoning and hindering objective reflection on potential negative consequences. This epistemic distortion is especially problematic in areas with high-variance outcomes, such as AI governance and technical safety research, where interventions could inadvertently worsen risks or create adversarial relationships with future AI. AI
IMPACT Suggests that intense focus on AI safety may lead to epistemic distortions, potentially hindering effective risk mitigation.
RANK_REASON The item is an opinion piece discussing the potential negative epistemic effects of working intensely in AI safety.
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