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中文(ZH) 中信建投：短期内美联储加息概率仍低

CITIC Securities: Fed rate hike unlikely soon, China's bond market unaffected

By PulseAugur Editorial · [1 sources] ·

CITIC Securities believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the short term remains low. Market concerns about Fed tightening are primarily based on assumptions of persistent domestic inflation and a hot job market, with expectations for a rate hike not beginning until late October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustments are seen as a premature reaction to anticipated Fed rate hikes in the fourth quarter. For China's bond market, the expectation of Fed tightening is not necessarily negative due to its relative independence from US Treasuries and ample domestic liquidity, which could drive funds towards the bond market. AI

RANK_REASON The cluster contains an analysis from a financial institution about potential central bank actions and their impact on markets.

Read on 36氪 (36Kr) →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 1 sources. How we write summaries →

CITIC Securities: Fed rate hike unlikely soon, China's bond market unaffected

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The cluster contains an analysis from a financial institution about potential central bank actions and their impact on markets.
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COVERAGE [1]

  1. 36氪 (36Kr) TIER_1 中文(ZH) ·

    CICC: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the short term is still low

    36氪获悉，中信建投指出，短期内，美联储加息概率仍低，市场对美联储紧缩的担忧主要在预期层面，建立在美国国内通胀粘性、就业持续火热的假设之上。CME美联储观察的数据表明，海外市场预期的美联储大概率加息时点开始于2026年10月末。当前全球流动性紧缩、市场调整是对美联储四季度加息预期的提前反应。就国内债市而言，美联储紧缩预期增加并非利空。国内债市相对独立，同美债关联较小。且在国内流动性宽裕的情况下，海外流动性的预期收紧及权益市场的调整不排除带动资金向债市转移，支撑长债当前点位。后续10Y国债预计继续在1.70%一线震荡，下破1.70%则仍需等待国内增量信息的…

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