A new proposal called "recursive forecasting" aims to elicit accurate long-term predictions from AI models that are primarily optimized for short-term rewards. Instead of asking for a distant outcome directly, the method involves asking the AI to predict its own future predictions, using these intermediate predictions to provide rewards. This process creates a chain of short-horizon forecasts that are verifiable, ultimately leading to a more reliable long-term forecast. The approach is detailed in a post by Arun and Alex, with contributions from several other researchers. AI
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IMPACT This method could improve the reliability of AI forecasts for long-term planning and decision-making.
RANK_REASON This is a research paper proposing a new method for AI alignment.
