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Paper questions next-token prediction utility in language models

A new paper published on arXiv questions the fundamental assumption that language models learn next-token prediction based solely on preceding text. The research argues that this next-token prediction is only conditionally correct, as real-world language generation is influenced by a multitude of non-textual factors like intentions, goals, and context. The paper proposes that for next-token prediction to be useful, the observed text must be a sufficient statistic for these latent circumstances, and introduces Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and tool use as methods to achieve this conditional sufficiency. AI

Summary written by gemini-2.5-flash-lite from 1 sources. How we write summaries →

IMPACT Challenges the core assumption of next-token prediction in LLMs, suggesting current methods may overlook crucial contextual factors for true understanding.

RANK_REASON The cluster contains an academic paper discussing theoretical aspects of language model training. [lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=1.0]

Read on arXiv stat.ML →

COVERAGE [1]

  1. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 · Francesco Corielli ·

    When Is Next-Token Prediction Useful? Marginalization, Ergodicity, Mixture Identifiability, Local Sufficiency, RAG, Tools, and Programming

    arXiv:2605.23278v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Language models trained on observed sequences are often described as learning the conditional distribution of the next token given previous tokens. This description is only conditionally correct. A model trained on realized token …