Jacob Steinhardt's analysis in Bounded Regret argues against relying on specific narratives to predict future catastrophes, advocating instead for the use of historical reference classes. By examining past events that caused significant population loss or species extinction, Steinhardt establishes numerical base rates for such occurrences. He identifies recurring causal factors like natural disasters, novel self-replicating organisms, and human conflict, suggesting these categories remain relevant for assessing 21st-century risks, including pandemics, climate change, and major wars. AI
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RANK_REASON This is an opinion piece by a named credible voice analyzing AI risks using historical data.
