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AI expert calls probability ranges a "cop-out"

By PulseAugur Editorial · [1 sources] ·

The author argues that probability ranges, such as those indicating a 90-93% chance of an event, are often used as a way to avoid making a definitive prediction. This approach is seen as a "cop-out" because it allows for a wide margin of error, making the prediction less meaningful. The piece suggests that such ranges can be a sign of uncertainty or an unwillingness to commit to a specific forecast. AI

IMPACT This commentary questions the utility of probabilistic forecasts in AI discussions, suggesting a need for more precise predictions.

RANK_REASON Opinion piece from a named author on a specific topic.

Read on LessWrong (AI tag) →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 1 sources. How we write summaries →

AI expert calls probability ranges a "cop-out"

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COVERAGE [1]

  1. LessWrong (AI tag) TIER_1 English(EN) · Awaclus ·

    Probability ranges are a cop-out with 90–93% probability

    <p><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">It feels like this post on LessWrong should mostly be preaching to the choir, but I have seen enough rationalists post probability ranges (mainly elsewhere) that maybe it is worth writing.</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wra…

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