A developer experimented with a common LLM routing strategy, where a cheaper model answers and escalates to a more powerful one if its confidence is low. Using local models like Llama3.2 1B and Llama3.1 8B, and pricing based on DeepSeek V4.1 Flash and GPT 5.6 "Sol", the experiment found that this routing method resulted in the same accuracy as using only the cheaper model, but cost 8.2 times more. The analysis revealed that the self-reported confidence of the cheaper model poorly correlated with its actual correctness, and in some cases, the act of asking for confidence actually degraded the model's performance. AI
IMPACT This experiment suggests that naive LLM routing based on self-reported confidence may be ineffective and costly, prompting developers to seek more robust routing solutions.
RANK_REASON Developer's personal experiment with LLM routing strategy.
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