Rodney Brooks has published his eighth annual predictions scorecard, reviewing his forecasts from January 1, 2018, on self-driving cars, robotics, AI, and space travel. He notes that his predictions have held up reasonably well, though he was generally too optimistic. Brooks specifically addresses his foresight regarding the emergence of a major AI advancement around 2023, correctly anticipating the influence of the "Attention Is All You Need" paper, but admits he did not foresee that advancement being Large Language Models. AI
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RANK_REASON This is an opinion piece by a credible voice in the AI field, reflecting on past predictions and current trends.