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New paper questions falsifiability of causal models

A new paper by Frederik Hytting Jørgensen explores the relationship between causal models and their ability to make falsifiable predictions about real-world interventions. The research introduces a formal framework that separates the causal model from the data-generating process, clarifying how actions are interpreted as interventions. The paper presents an impossibility result, demonstrating that no interpretation can simultaneously satisfy desirable properties without circularity, meaning any model fitting observational data could be considered interventionally valid and thus unfalsifiable. The work analyzes alternative interpretations and discusses implications for causal discovery, representation learning, and abstraction. AI

IMPACT This research could refine how causal AI models are developed and validated, potentially leading to more robust and empirically testable systems.

RANK_REASON The cluster contains an academic paper published on arXiv. [lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=1.0]

Read on arXiv cs.AI →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 1 sources. How we write summaries →

New paper questions falsifiability of causal models

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The cluster contains an academic paper published on arXiv. [lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=1.0]
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COVERAGE [1]

  1. arXiv cs.AI TIER_1 English(EN) · Frederik Hytting J{\o}rgensen, Luigi Gresele, Sebastian Weichwald ·

    What is causal about causal models and representations?

    arXiv:2501.19335v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal Bayesian networks are often described as causal because they support reasoning about interventions. Yet interventions are defined in the mathematical model, whereas the resulting model predictions concern the effect…