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New research establishes optimal lower bounds for online multicalibration

Two new papers published on arXiv explore the theoretical underpinnings of multicalibration in machine learning. The first paper establishes tight lower bounds for online multicalibration, demonstrating an information-theoretic separation from marginal calibration. The second paper investigates the sample complexity of multicalibration in the batch setting, proving that $\widetilde{\Theta}(\varepsilon^{-3})$ samples are necessary and sufficient for achieving a certain error tolerance. AI

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IMPACT These theoretical findings may inform the development of more robust and fair machine learning models by clarifying the fundamental limits of calibration.

RANK_REASON The cluster contains two academic papers published on arXiv concerning theoretical aspects of machine learning calibration.

Read on arXiv stat.ML →

New research establishes optimal lower bounds for online multicalibration

COVERAGE [2]

  1. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 · Natalie Collina, Jiuyao Lu, Georgy Noarov, Aaron Roth ·

    Optimal Lower Bounds for Online Multicalibration

    arXiv:2601.05245v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We prove tight lower bounds for online multicalibration, establishing an information-theoretic separation from marginal calibration. In the general setting where group functions can depend on both context and the learner's…

  2. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 · Aaron Roth ·

    The Sample Complexity of Multicalibration

    We study the minimax sample complexity of multicalibration in the batch setting. A learner observes $n$ i.i.d. samples from an unknown distribution and must output a (possibly randomized) predictor whose population multicalibration error, measured by Expected Calibration Error (E…