A new paper explores the coherence of probabilistic forecasts made by language models, particularly for life decisions. Researchers used a method based on de Finetti's theorem to identify AI
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arXiv:2609.02797v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: People increasingly use language models to support life decisions. Many such decisions involve a probabilistic forecast: How likely is a major life event, a natural disaster, or an economic outcome? Users of language models may im…
People increasingly use language models to support life decisions. Many such decisions involve a probabilistic forecast: How likely is a major life event, a natural disaster, or an economic outcome? Users of language models may implicitly trust that these forecasts fall out of a …