A new analysis estimates China's AI compute capacity at approximately 2.8 million H100-equivalent GPUs, a figure derived independently from both supply-side and demand-side calculations. The supply-side approach tallied chip shipments, smuggling, domestic production, and cloud access, while the demand-side method estimated compute needs for inference and training workloads. This convergence of estimates provides a crucial data point for policymakers assessing the effectiveness of export controls on advanced AI chips and understanding China's technological capabilities. AI
RANK_REASON Analysis of a nation's AI compute capacity and its implications for export controls.
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