New benchmark and simulator predict second-order policy effects

Researchers have developed a new benchmark and simulator designed to predict the second-order effects of public policies. This tool accounts for how policies can alter the institutional environment, leading to actor adaptations, shifts in enforcement capacity, and new equilibria. The benchmark includes 96 policy cases across eight domains, with a simulator that achieved a mean policy-effect quality of 0.945, outperforming baseline methods in capturing downstream institutional effects. AI

IMPACT This research introduces a novel approach to policy simulation, potentially improving the accuracy of predicting real-world impacts by accounting for adaptive behaviors and institutional changes.

RANK_REASON Academic paper detailing a new benchmark and simulation method. [lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=0.4]

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