The concept of P(doom), representing the probability of catastrophic existential risk, is difficult to define using standard methods like betting or forecasting. Betting on doom is problematic because the value of the bet becomes zero if the apocalypse occurs. Forecasting methods can be manipulated by unscrupulous actors. While world models can technically provide probabilities, most people rely on a combination of models and intuition rather than purely mathematical approaches. A proposed alternative definition involves a genie offering a choice between the world progressing as is or a random outcome with a probability 'p' of doom. AI
IMPACT Clarifies a key concept in existential risk discussions, potentially aiding in more precise risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
RANK_REASON The item discusses a conceptual framework for understanding existential risk probabilities, rather than reporting on a specific event or release.
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