New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis indicates that artificial intelligence has not yet led to a measurable increase in aggregate productivity, despite widespread optimism expressed in corporate earnings calls. The study suggests that AI's gains may be 'structurally invisible' because the technology makes outputs cheaper, thus devaluing them and canceling out productivity math. This pattern aligns with historical precedents, such as the slow diffusion of electrification and computers, where significant productivity payoffs took decades to appear in aggregate data. AI
IMPACT AI's productivity benefits may be delayed for decades, mirroring historical technological diffusion patterns, suggesting a long wait for measurable economic impact.
RANK_REASON The article discusses research findings and historical parallels regarding AI's impact on productivity, fitting the 'commentary' bucket.
- Aakash Kalyani
- Artificial intelligence
- ChatGPT
- Erik Brynjolfsson
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Kevin Warsh
- Nicholas Sullivan
- Robert Solow
- Serdar Ozkan
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