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中文(ZH) 华泰证券:预计美联储7月加息概率略高于一半,9月前加息的概率接近100%

Huatai Securities predicts Fed rate hike in July, near certainty by September

Huatai Securities anticipates a slight increase in the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in July, estimating it to be just over 50%. The firm also projects a near 100% chance of a hike before September, attributing this shift to market expectations of a more hawkish stance from the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Huatai Securities suggests that an earlier rate hike in July might present a lower overall cost in the context of the new Chair's strategic maneuvering with the market. AI

RANK_REASON Analysis and prediction from a financial institution regarding central bank policy.

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Huatai Securities predicts Fed rate hike in July, near certainty by September

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  1. 36氪 (36Kr) TIER_1 中文(ZH) ·

    Huatai Securities: Expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July to be slightly over half, and the probability of raising interest rates before September to be close to 100%

    36氪获悉,华泰证券指出,美联储新任主席凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)上任后,金融市场对这位新主席政策取向的定价从此前的鸽派降息,转为更偏鹰派的短期立场。但临近7月议息会议,市场对联储下一步政策的预期却极度分化。沃什废除前瞻指引后,市场定价更为困难,而沃什和市场博弈焦点势必从“听其言”转为“观其行”。综合分析历届联储主席换届经验、当前宏观环境以及沃什赢得公信力的目标,华泰证券将联储加息的预测时点提前——预计,7月加息概率略高于一半,高于市场目前预期的40%,而基准情形下,沃什9月前加息的概率接近100%。从新任主席和市场博弈的角度看,7月加息综合成…