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Probabilistic models retain uncertainty even with complete data

This article delves into the concept of inevitable uncertainty in probabilistic world models, using examples like a fish pond and an ideal gas to illustrate the point. The author discusses how even when all data about a system is known, a probabilistic model can still retain uncertainty in its parameters, such as the mean and variance. This uncertainty arises from the model itself, not necessarily from the real world, prompting a discussion on whether to discard such models or continue using them. AI

IMPACT Explores the inherent limitations and conceptual nuances of probabilistic modeling in AI, relevant for understanding model behavior.

RANK_REASON The item is an opinion piece discussing a philosophical concept in AI modeling, not a release or research paper.

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Probabilistic models retain uncertainty even with complete data

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  1. LessWrong (AI tag) TIER_1 English(EN) · Gretta Duleba ·

    Inevitable Uncertainty in Probabilistic World Models

    <p><span>Working with John Wentworth is confusing and overwhelming at times.</span><span class="footnote-reference" id="fnrefwkw50qil2p"><sup><a href="#fnwkw50qil2p">[1]</a></sup></span><span> The guy has a lot of information and models in his head and he doesn’t always make good…