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中文(ZH) 中信建投:供给宽松预期压制锂价,淡季不淡有望反弹

Lithium prices face pressure from supply but expect rebound on strong demand

Lithium prices have seen a significant drop in the past week due to expectations of increased supply from new mine production in Jiangxi and imported spodumene concentrate from Zimbabwe in July. However, actual supply remains tight, with some lithium salt plants reducing output due to raw material shortages and maintenance. Despite these supply pressures, demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year, driven by new production capacity coming online and a rush to secure electric vehicle subsidies before they decrease in 2027. Analysts predict production to increase month-over-month in July and August, indicating a strong upcoming season. AI

RANK_REASON This item is an analysis of market trends and price predictions, not a primary release or event.

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Lithium prices face pressure from supply but expect rebound on strong demand

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  1. 36氪 (36Kr) TIER_1 中文(ZH) ·

    CITIC Securities: Loose supply expectations suppress lithium prices, but the off-season is not weak and a rebound is expected

    36氪获悉,中信建投证券研报称,近一周锂价大幅下行,供给边际宽松预期给予压制,主要是江西锂矿复产及津巴布韦锂精矿到港均将在7月兑现,但精矿维持紧现实格局,部分锂盐厂因原料偏紧及检修等因素出现减量,辉石及云母产量下降,周内产量维持降势;同时库存方面依然维持去化,部分散单惜售挺价。需求侧无过多担忧,初端消费侧,下半年将有较多新产能初步建成并爬产,放大下游补库效应,带来消费的边际增量,终端需求侧,2027年新能源车补贴退坡将夯实年内抢装,推高下半年排产预期,商用车增速乐观,上半年同比增长36%,1—5月纯电动车出口183.3万辆,同比增长114.4%。三季度看…