A critical analysis of Plan A, a proposed strategy for safely developing superintelligence, highlights the "dry tinder" problem. This analogy suggests that while the plan aims to pause software progress and build compute capacity, the increased compute could accelerate an intelligence explosion if the pause fails. The plan's reliance on "Mutually Assured Compute Destruction" (MACD) to deter violations is also questioned, with concerns about the speed and reliability of detecting breaches. AI
IMPACT Raises concerns about the potential for AI safety strategies to inadvertently increase risks.
RANK_REASON Analysis of a proposed AI safety strategy, not a direct release or event.
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