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New research advances conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification · 5 sources tracked

Researchers have developed new methods for conformal prediction, a framework used to quantify uncertainty in machine learning models. One paper proposes probabilistic Bernoulli prediction sets (BPS) that can express both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, achieving conditional coverage for valid credal sets. Another approach focuses on approximating full conformal prediction regions efficiently within Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). Additionally, a robust Bayes-assisted conformal prediction framework called RoBAS is introduced, which adapts to the reliability of Bayesian priors to produce efficient prediction sets, particularly in settings with distribution shifts. AI

IMPACT Advances in conformal prediction can lead to more reliable uncertainty quantification in AI models, crucial for high-stakes applications.

RANK_REASON Multiple arXiv papers introducing new methodologies and frameworks for conformal prediction.

Read on arXiv stat.ML →

AI-generated summary · Google Gemini · from 7 sources. How we write summaries →

New research advances conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification · 5 sources tracked

COVERAGE [7]

  1. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · Yuqi Yang, Ying Jin ·

    Multi-Distribution Robust Conformal Prediction

    arXiv:2601.02998v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of con…

  2. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · Meiyi Zhu, Osvaldo Simeone ·

    Beyond Fixed False Discovery Rates: Post-Hoc Conformal Selection with E-Variables

    arXiv:2604.11305v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal selection (CS) uses calibration data to identify test inputs whose unobserved outcomes are likely to satisfy a pre-specified minimal quality requirement, while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). Existing…

  3. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · Alireza Javanmardi, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Santo M. A. R. Thies, Willem Waegeman, Aleksandar Bojchevski, Eyke H\"ullermeier ·

    Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty

    arXiv:2505.19033v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees. In practice, CP is typically applied on top of probabilis…

  4. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · Davidson Lova Razafindrakoto, Alain Celisse, J\'er\^ome Lacaille ·

    Approximate full conformal prediction in an RKHS

    arXiv:2601.13102v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Full conformal prediction is a framework that implicitly formulates distribution-free confidence prediction regions for a wide range of estimators. However, a classical limitation of the full conformal framework is the computati…

  5. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · Kianoosh Ashouritaklimi, Stefano Cortinovis, Fran\c{c}ois Caron ·

    Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction

    arXiv:2607.04236v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayes-assisted conformal prediction combines the strengths of Bayesian modelling with exact, distribution-free frequentist coverage guarantees. Although conformal validity is preserved even when the Bayesian working model (BWM) is m…

  6. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · François Caron ·

    Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction

    Bayes-assisted conformal prediction combines the strengths of Bayesian modelling with exact, distribution-free frequentist coverage guarantees. Although conformal validity is preserved even when the Bayesian working model (BWM) is misspecified, the size of the resulting predictio…

  7. arXiv stat.ML TIER_1 English(EN) · François Caron ·

    Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction

    Bayes-assisted conformal prediction combines the strengths of Bayesian modelling with exact, distribution-free frequentist coverage guarantees. Although conformal validity is preserved even when the Bayesian working model (BWM) is misspecified, the size of the resulting predictio…