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Counterfactual mugging linked to non-anthropic decision theory problems

This paper explores the concept of counterfactual mugging, a thought experiment used to motivate updateless decision theory. It rephrases the problem to clarify the role of counterfactuals and simulated agents. The author draws parallels between counterfactual mugging and Psy-kosh's non-anthropic problem, demonstrating how they represent similar decision-making challenges in probabilistic scenarios. AI

IMPACT Explores theoretical decision-making frameworks relevant to AI alignment and rational agency.

RANK_REASON The item is a theoretical paper discussing a decision theory problem. [lever_c_demoted from research: ic=1 ai=1.0]

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Counterfactual mugging linked to non-anthropic decision theory problems

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  1. LessWrong (AI tag) TIER_1 English(EN) · Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir ·

    Counterfactual mugging is a limiting case of Psy-kosh's non-anthropic problem

    <p><a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/w/counterfactual-mugging">Counterfactual mugging</a> is the typical problem used to motivate updateless decision theory:</p> <blockquote> <p>Omega flips a coin. If Heads, it asks you for $1. If Tails, it offers you $5 only if it predicts you …