This essay argues that AI existential risk probability estimates are too unreliable to be useful for policymakers, despite their prevalence in the AI safety community. The author contends that these quantified risks, often presented without sufficient justification or grounded methodology, can be misleading and lack the legitimacy required for government action. While acknowledging the speculative nature of future risks, the piece emphasizes the need for evidence-based approaches that policymakers can publicly defend, especially when considering costly regulations. AI
RANK_REASON This is an opinion piece by a named author discussing the unreliability of AI existential risk probabilities for policy decisions.
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