The increasing risk associated with advanced AI models suggests that superintelligence may be subject to strict controls, akin to nuclear weapons. Publicly available frontier models are likely to face limitations due to hardware and software supply chain restrictions, leading most companies and developers to utilize current-generation models. Furthermore, the concepts of 'demand horizon' and 'judgment horizon' indicate that users may not perceive significant performance improvements due to the complexity of their problems and their own verification capabilities. This dynamic could create a situation where AI development appears to plateau externally, while access to superintelligence remains exclusive to a select few. AI
IMPACT Potential future restrictions on AI model access could concentrate advanced capabilities among a select few, impacting broader development and application.
RANK_REASON The item discusses potential future policy and access restrictions for AI models based on current trends and risks, rather than reporting on a specific event.
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