Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models
A new research paper, "Think Fast," explores the internal reasoning capabilities of frontier AI models, specifically their ability to complete tasks without explicit chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting. The study found that the time horizon for these models to complete tasks with 50% success has been doubling annually over the past six years. GPT-5.5, for instance, can now complete tasks in over 3 minutes without CoT, and researchers project this could extend to 25 minutes by 2030, raising concerns about AI safety oversight. AI
IMPACT This research highlights a potential blind spot in AI safety monitoring, as models increasingly perform complex reasoning internally without explicit steps.