Forecasting Conceptual Diffusion in Science: The Case of Quantum Computing
Researchers have developed a new method to forecast the diffusion of scientific concepts, focusing on quantum computing as a case study. By analyzing concept co-occurrence networks and citation patterns, they trained models to predict how concepts spread within and across scientific fields. The study found that while endogenous reinforcement of concepts is hard to predict, exogenous diffusion and entropy are highly predictable, driven by factors like upstream heterogeneity and citation breadth. AI
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