Prospect-Theory Behavior from Bellman Optimality in MDPs with Catastrophic States
A new research paper explores how optimal control in Markov decision processes (MDPs) can inherently lead to prospect-theory-like behaviors, even without explicit utility curvature or probability weighting. The study identifies that the presence of an absorbing catastrophic state causes agents to exhibit risk-averse behavior near failure in growth scenarios and risk-seeking behavior in decline scenarios. Researchers derived a closed-form expression for loss aversion that depends on win probability, payoff asymmetry, and discount factor, demonstrating that absorbing failure states are a sufficient mechanism for these observed behaviors. AI
IMPACT Identifies a structural mechanism for prospect-theory-like behavior in AI agents, potentially impacting risk-aware decision-making in critical systems.