Seeing Below the Limit of Detection: A Censored-Poisson Bayesian Latent-Growth Change-Point Detector (the Span Detector) for Serial ctDNA in HR+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer
Researchers have developed a new Bayesian change-point detector called Span, designed to analyze serial circulating-tumour DNA (ctDNA) data. This method treats non-detects as left-censored observations, enabling the detection of drug resistance earlier than traditional methods. In simulations for metastatic breast cancer, Span approximately doubled the detection rate of impending progressions three months in advance compared to snapshot analyses. AI
IMPACT This new statistical method could improve early detection of drug resistance in cancer patients by leveraging intermittent ctDNA signals.